The first Copa America semifinal is a classic case of David vs. Goliath. Reigning champions and the world’s top-ranked team Argentina face the Cinderella story of the tournament in Canada for a spot in the final. To no one’s surprise, Argentina have barely put a foot wrong on their way to the semifinals, relying on a handful of attacking talents while Lionel Messi takes more of a behind-the-scenes role in what could be his final international tournament. They will naturally be the heavy favorites against Canada, who they beat 2-0 to open the competition. It’s a surprise rematch of the first game since Canada have gone on an unexpected run to the final four just weeks into Jesse Marsch’s tenure as head coach. It sets up for an intriguing showdown between two teams with the same ambition, but with different points to prove.
Here’s what to know before tuning in.
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How to watch and odds
- Date: Tuesday, July 9 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium — East Rutherford, N.J.
- TV: FS1 | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
- Odds: Argentina -310; Draw +390; Canada +850
Storylines
Argentina: Messi remains the focal point of the team, but Argentina’s greatest strength at the Copa America has been their attacking depth. Lautaro Martinez has become the tournament’s most reliable goalscorer with four goals, while Alexis Mac Allister leads his team with two assists. Messi has just one assist to his name — to Martinez’s goal in the opener against Canada — but he has been no slouch, creating 11 chances in three games, the third-most in the competition.
Their depth allows them to maintain their tag as the favorites to win the whole thing, though a penalty shootout win after a 1-1 draw with Ecuador raised a little bit of alarm. They were outshot by Ecuador 9-8 and also lost the expected goals battle 1.73 to 0.87, but a matchup against Canada is expected to offer a perfect opportunity to bounce back with a spot in the final on the line.
Canada: Canada know they are the underdogs, but they also know they have nothing to lose on Tuesday even the chance to extend their Cinderella run by one more game. Marsch and company will take confidence from their last meeting with Argentina, even though they lost 2-0 — Canada posted 10 shots that night and 1.16 expected goals and would have been able to score on a better finishing night.
Despite the excitement of an underdog story, their inability to score is probably an asterisk on their overall performance thus far. They have put just 35% of their shots on target and are underperforming on their expected goals tally, which sits at 5.68 despite scoring just twice. They boast the potential to do some real damage but struggled to close off games against lackluster Peru and Chile, both of whom were down to 10, and Venezuela. It emphasizes their status as the underdogs against Argentina but from a big-picture standpoint, these feel like decent building blocks roughly a month into Marsch’s campaign, and it will be exciting to see where Canada can go from here post-Copa America.
Projected lineups
Argentina: Emiliano Martinez, Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico, Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Nicolas Gonzalez, Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez
Canada: Maxime Crepeau, Alistair Johnston, Moise Bombito, Alphonso Davies, Jonathan Osorio, Stephen Eustaquio, Richie Laryea, Jonathan David, Jacob Shaffelburg, Cyle Larin
Prediction
This is Argentina’s game to lose, and between the talent on the roster and the ambition this group has after winning multiple trophies in recent years, it feels unlikely they will squander the opportunity to make back-to-back Copa America finals. Expect an entertaining match against a new-look Canada, but one that will end as expected — with Argentina on top. Pick: Argentina 2, Canada 0