Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds, prediction: 2024 NBA Western Conference finals Game 5 picks by proven model

The Dallas Mavericks will get another chance to close out the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2024 NBA Western Conference finals when the teams collide in a crucial Game 5 on Thursday at the Target Center in Minneapolis. In Game 4 on Tuesday, the Timberwolves avoided a sweep with a 105-100 victory in Dallas. Despite the win, the Mavericks still lead the best-of-seven series, 3-1. The winner of the series will advance to the NBA Finals to face the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics, who swept the Indiana Pacers in four games.

Tipoff on Thursday is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Minnesota is listed as a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 209.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks or NBA playoff predictions, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven SportsLine Projection Model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Timberwolves vs. Mavericks in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals and locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves:

  • Timberwolves vs. Mavericks spread: Minnesota -4.5
  • Timberwolves vs. Mavericks over/under: 209.5 points
  • Timberwolves vs. Mavericks money line: Minnesota -196, Dallas +163
  • MIN: Timberwolves led the NBA in defensive efficiency (108.4) during the regular season
  • DAL: Luka Doncic leads all players in assists per game (9.1) during the playoffs
  • Timberwolves vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Timberwolves can cover 

Minnesota has been clutch when facing elimination in the 2024 NBA playoffs. The Timberwolves are 3-0 in games when a loss would’ve sent them home for the summer. That includes two wins in the Western Conference semifinals against the reigning champion Denver Nuggets when Minnesota was down 3-2 in the series.

In addition, the Timberwolves have been an elite defensive team all season. During the regular season, Minnesota led the NBA in defensive efficiency (108.4 points per 100 possessions). The unit was anchored by 7-foot-1 center Rudy Gobert, who was named the league’s Defensive Player of the Year. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover 

Doncic has been an elite playmaker for Dallas during the playoffs. In the postseason the do-it-all point guard has led all players in assists, averaging 9.1 per game. He also ranks eighth in scoring (28.3 points per game) and ninth in rebounding (9.6). In Game 4 on Tuesday he had a triple-double, with 28 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists.

Led by Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks have excelled in clutch situations this season. Dallas owned the NBA’s second-best clutch record (23-9) and the best clutch offense (127.1 points per 100 possessions) during the regular season. So far in this series against Minnesota, the Mavericks have outscored the Timberwolves 32-21 in the final three minutes of the four games. See which team to pick here.

How to make Timberwolves vs. Mavericks picks      

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 209 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine

So who wins Game 5 of Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

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